The Man Who Knew

I am currently reading The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan by Sebastian Mallaby. This excerpt stood out to me:

        Greenspan had spent a year and a half on a report that was destined for some dusty shelf; he had been wise not to invest more energy in it. And yet this non-outcome proved more significant than it appeared, for it anticipated the story of financial reform during Greenspan's Fed tenure. Finance did change in the 1970s, but it was shaped not by the deliberate planning of an expert commission but by market pressures and crises. The fact that Greenspan and his fellow commissioners proposed to phase out Regulation Q did not matter in the end; Regulation Q was neutered anyways as savings flooded in to the new money-market funds, as unregulated dollar bonds multiplied in London, and as the Fed dealt with the panic following Penn Central by scrapping the Regulation Q cap on the interest that banks could pay to attract very large deposits. The pattern was the same in later years. Finance changed dramatically in the 1990s and early 2000s, but the change was not dictated by the deliberations of experts; earnest working committees pondered the meaning of the new swaps market or the rise of shadow banks, but Greenspan declined to throw his weight behind their ideas, and their findings failed to alter policy.

        In this tentative approach to his regulatory responsibilities as Fed chairman, Greenspan was perhaps exhibiting a fatalism he had learned under Nixon. The evolution of finance could have huge consequences, to be sure, but efforts to shape it were liable to founder. Technological changes, the exigencies of crises, and money's mulish tendency to find its was around the rules - these forces decided things.

It is worth the time reading about Greenspan and the financial changes during the second half of the 20th century. As the saying goes, "History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes." 

Luke & Joe: Norway 2016

“Why do you go away? So that you can come back. So that you can see the place you came from with new eyes and extra colors. And the people there see you differently, too. Coming back to where you started is not the same as never leaving.”

— Terry Pratchett

Two of us - Joe and Luke - decided to take a trip to Norway during the last week of October. It was a wonderful experience that gave us a chance to spend some serious time reflecting on our personal and professional goals, as well as continue to cultivate our strong friendship.

We chose Norway for two reasons:

From an economic standpoint, Norway is one of the most interesting countries in the developed world.

Tiny Norway, with a population of 5 million, is home to the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund which has a total AUM of just under $900B USD. Funded by Norway’s large amount of oil revenue, the fund invests in 9,000 companies and has investments in 75 countries, according to their website.

What is also interesting is the huge role Norway’s “Council of Ethics” plays in how the fund is invested. Excluded on their long “black list” are tobacco companies, producers of nuclear arms, creators of severe environmental damages, and human rights violators to name a few. This enormous amount of wealth also allows Norway to be extremely progressive in the department of providing subsidies to its citizens for the use of clean energy such as electric vehicles. For a while the bestselling car in Norway was California’s own Tesla Model S.

Norway is also one of the most beautiful countries on the planet.

Byrkjelo 

These two reasons were more than enough to spend some quality time stepping away from the hustle and bustle of day-to-day life to take a deep (cold) breath.

Oslo:

Oslo is Norway’s capitol and largest city. We spent two days exploring this city, where we had a few drinks and made some friends.

Grünerløkka Neighborhood in Oslo

One aspect of the trip that went well in particular was the balance between planning and spontaneity.  We had a general plan as to where we were headed: from Oslo to Bergen then a bit further north, concluding the trip back at Oslo. There were a few fjords we wanted to see; however, we also left a few days unplanned. This allowed us to take advantage of recommendations by our Airbnb hosts and explore things that caught our attention as we were going along. This balance between uncertainty and planning is a tricky one. It is natural to want to eliminate uncertainty. Traveling to a foreign country where we didn’t speak the native language and had limited cell phone use certainly involved risk. Despite this, several of the most interesting sites we saw were possible because we did not plan everything out.

While in Oslo we were also fortunate to visit the Viking Ship Museum. It was very humbling to see these colossal boats that traveled incredible distances across the bitter cold Atlantic.

Naturally, probably trigged by the enormous amount of passion the Vikings had, a fair amount of time on the trip was spent discussing career and personal development. It is helpful to reflect on these ideas in a different setting than one is accustomed to because it allows one to think from a different perspective. As we have written on this blog before, bringing about change involves three things: changing one’s environment, changing who one spends time with, and changing one’s routine. Traveling results in all three. In particular, changing one’s environment allows one to have a more objective view and can bring about thoughts that might not occur otherwise. It was helpful to think about career and personal development from a bit of a different viewpoint

Bergen:

Bergen is Norway’s second largest city and is surrounded by mountains and the country's longest and deepest fjord, Sognefjord.

Overlooking Bergen

We were in the city of Bergen for three days. Our first day started with a wonderful hike to the top of Fløyen, one of the city’s mountains that overlooks Bergan city centre.

Throughout this hike we discussed a lot pertaining to the concept of uncertainty.

Just like with traveling, uncertainty involves risk but also can offer potential rewards. It is a natural tendency to want to eliminate risk. In the past risk represented life-and-death danger. While this is no longer the case – most of us don’t have to worry about where our next meal is coming from – the fear of uncertainty is still there. As a young person, however, certain risks are worth taking for the potential reward. The entrepreneur and investor Gary Vaynerchuk notes the following about this:

“If you are 22 years old, regardless if you’re graduating from college or not, there are two things you should keep in mind. The first is to acknowledge that you are entering some of the greatest years of your life. The second is that this is the moment when you don’t go practical — don’t take the “safe” route. This is NOT the time to get the job Mom always wanted you to get. This is NOT the time to try to maximize as much money as you can make so you can save up to buy a sick ride. This IS the time, however, to realize that you have a five-year window (three for some, eight for others) for you to attack the life that you want to win.”

One of the fundamental principles of the world is that risk and reward go hand-in-hand. More importantly, there is no such thing as a risk-free reward, even if the only risk is the opportunity cost of something else. The key is to take calculated risks when the potential reward makes it worth doing so.

We also took a day trip to an old secluded village by the name of Undredal. Like many cities in this part of Norway, it was virtually inaccessible, apart from boat, prior to the completion of a series of tunnels punched through the mountain ranges. Some of these tunnels are over 10 miles long.  

Undredal

Undredal has a population of 100 people and 500 goats. They make cheese and is home to the smallest Stave church in Northern Europe. A Stave church is a medieval wooden Christian church; this one was built in the year 1147. Old here means something completely different than it does in the United States. 

Undredal Stave Church

Fjords:

Geirangerfjord

Several days of the trip were spent exploring various fjords. A fjord is created when a glacier carves a sharp narrow valley which is then filled with water. The steep sides of the land around the fjord and the stillness of the water were particularly noteworthy. The magnitude of the fjords are tough to put into words, but they are remarkable.

Alexander in India encountered some gymnosophists (literally “naked wise men”) yogis, sitting in meditation in the sun on the banks of the Indus. Alexander’s party was trying to get through the busy street, but the yogis had their spot and they wouldn’t move. One of Alexander’s zealous young lieutenants took it upon himself to chase the holy men out of the king’s path. When one of the wise men resisted, the officer started verbally abusing him. Just then, Alexander came up. The lieutenant pointed to Alexander and said to the yogi, “This man has conquered the world! What have you accomplished?” The yogi looked up calmly and replied, “I have conquered the need to conquer the world.”

                                                                                   -The Warrior Ethos, Steven Pressfield

Eidsdal

This is one of our favorite stories. We discussed a great deal on this trip the importance of self-awareness before focusing on any external goals. This anecdote is especially powerful because the exchange is occurring between two individuals that from the outside perspective could not seem more different, further separated by all imaginable measures of success, brilliance, and power: Alexander the Great vs. some naked Indian yogi.

This trip provided a tremendous opportunity for self-reflection and acknowledgement of weaknesses in order to identify areas for improvement. We spent a great deal of time engaged in conversation but also a good amount was spent self-reflecting. Joe continued his streak meditating (he has meditated for 283 days consecutively), Luke had the opportunity to read a write a great deal while completely removed from his routines and comfort zone. We continued our quest towards identifying our own version of “conquering the world”.

Geirangerfjord

We discussed the following books:

•  Slaughterhouse Five – Kurt Vonnegut
•  Jesse Livermore - Boy Plunger: The Man Who Sold America Short in 1929 – Tom Rubython
•  Secret Life of the Mongols – Anonymous
•  A Short History of Nearly Everything – Bill Bryson 
•  The Power of One – Bryce Courtenay
•   Moonwalking with Einstein – Joshua Foer

We listed to the following music:

• The Life of Pablo

Change: The Three Areas to Make It Happen

For several reasons I decided to make some changes and get back to the fundamentals in the month of July: exercising consistently, eating a healthy diet, spending more time outside and less time on social media, consistent meditation, writing in my journal on a daily basis, reading books every day, zero frivolous spending, and not drinking any alcohol. During the final few days of June I mapped out a specific plan with specific goals on each of these objectives. The next step was to figure out how to make these changes happen.

There are three main ways to change oneself:

1. Change one’s daily habits or routines.
2. Change one’s environment.
3. Change the people one surrounds him or herself with.

Outside of these three change is improbable, if not impossible. In fact, without some combination of all three, it is not likely to happen either. Real and permanent change requires one take deliberate steps in all phases. For example, if I wanted to lose ten pounds, but I kept visiting the same bar (number 2) with the same group of unhealthy friends (number 3), the weight loss would never happen. It might in the short term, and if I have great self-control I might even be able to keep it up for a full year, but ultimately I would revert back to my old self. Point being, significant and lasting change requires not one or two adjustments, but mindful adjustments in three specific aspects of one’s life: one’s daily habits or routines, one’s environment, and the people one spends time with. As Darren Hardy notes in The Compound Effect, “Small, Smart Choices + Consistency + Time = Radical Difference.”